For Immediate Release
June 17, 2016
Contact: Jesse Prieto (716) 941-2510
TENNEY LEADS BY 1% IN NY 22ND CONGRESSIONAL REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
With less than two weeks remaining in the Republican Primary campaign for New York’s 22nd Congressional District, the race is a perfect toss-up between Claudia Tenney and Steve Wells for the Republican nomination. Tenney leads Wells 32%-31% with George Phillips trailing behind at 13%. Our findings show that the margin between Tenney and Wells has narrowed greatly from previously released internal polls showing Tenney with a wide lead. Wells has pulled to a statistical tie following significant investment in the race by outside interests and independent expenditure groups determined to stop Tenney from earning the Republican nomination.
If the Republican Primary Election for Congress were held today and the candidates were George Phillips, Claudia Tenney and Steven Wells, who would you vote for?
Steven Wells (44% favorable/25% unfavorable/31% not sure) has built a solid image rating as a first time candidate. He has the best favorable to unfavorable ratio in the race with 19% more voters viewing him favorably than unfavorably. Claudia Tenney (42% favorable/43% unfavorable/15% not sure) is a far better known candidate. However, it appears that outside spending by independent expenditure groups has taken it’s toll on Tenney’s overall image rating and leaving her with significantly higher negatives than her opponents. Tenney evokes stronger intensity on both sides of the spectrum with 23% saying they were “very favorable” and another 23% viewing Tenney as “very unfavorable”. George Phillips (27% favorable/22% unfavorable/51% not sure) is the least known of the three candidates competing in the Primary election. However, he does have an advantage in the Binghamton market with Broome/Tioga County voters and is narrowly leading Wells in that region.
Donald Trump is wildly popular with likely Republican Primary voters with 72% viewing him favorably. That stands in stark contrast to Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton who is viewed unfavorably by 85% of likely Republican Primary voters. Tenney is the only candidate that has publicly offered a full endorsement for Trump for President.
Outgoing Congressman, Richard Hanna remains very popular in his district with 61% of Republican Primary voters viewing him favorably as opposed to 30% who view him unfavorably.
Governor Andrew Cuomo is incredibly unpopular with Republican Primary voters and Well’s company’s past donations to the Governor have been an issue in this campaign. Cuomo is viewed unfavorably by 73% of Republican Primary voters.
As usual in Upstate New York, Jobs and the Economy lead the most important issues to voters. It is the most important issue to 30% of the Republican Primary electorate in this district. Wells leads Tenney amongst Jobs/Economy voters 34% – 30% The second ranked issue is National Defense and Terrorism with 23% rating it as their top issue. Tenney leads Wells 32%-28% among those that say National Defense and Terrorism is their top priority when choosing a candidate to vote for.
Another hot button issue for GOP Primary voters is the 2nd Amendment with 10% rating it as their top issue. Tenney leads Wells 41%-23% among those voters.
For the purposes of this survey, we broke down the district into three regions.
1. Broome and Tioga Counties
2. Madison, Chenango and Cortland Counties
3. Oneida, Herkimer and Oswego Counties
Broome and Tioga Counties
Madison, Chenango and Cortland Counties
Oneida, Herikmer and Oswego Counties
Each candidate has a lead in their home regions. Phillips performs best by far in his home region of Broome/Tioga. Wells leads widely in Madison, Chenango and Cortland Counties and Tenney is the overwhelming favorite in the Oneida Herkimer and Oswego County portion of NY 22. While Tenney leads in the most vote-rich region of the Congressional District, she trails significantly in the remainder of the seat. Spiking voter turnout in her home base must be a tactic for her campaign to win on June 28th. Wells’ support is more evenly distributed in the district. He trails Tenney nearly 2:1 in the most populated region of the district, but is making up votes elsewhere.
“A lot can happen in the final days of a campaign. This race clearly will hinge on who can deliver their supporters to the polls in what will likely be a very low turnout Primary Election. Of likely voters, 24% have yet to choose a candidate. Whoever has the superior ground effort and turnout operation will likely win the nomination. All three candidates have clear paths to victory in a volatile three-way race.” said Liberty Opinion Research President, Nick Langworthy.
The sample size for the survey is 932 likely Republican Primary voters in the 22nd Congressional District of New York and the margin of error is +/-3.2%. Responses were gathered through landline interviews conducted using IVR Automated Phone Calls. The survey was conducted by Liberty Opinion Research LLC, June 14-15, 2016. The poll was paid for by Liberty Opinion Research LLC and is not affiliated or contracted by any campaign, candidate or outside entity involved in the race.
Liberty Opinion Research is a public polling firm based in Buffalo, New York and is dedicated to delivering cost-effective, accurate and fast results for our clients and candidates.