Buffalo, NY – Liberty Opinion Research’s latest survey of the Republican Primary electorate in New York State finds Donald Trump in a position to win the Empire State’s Primary convincingly, leading by 33 percentage points. Trump leads the race widely in every region of the state, every ethnic, age group and gender by wide margins. Trump leads with 55% of the primary vote, followed by John Kasich at 22% and Ted Cruz at 19% respectively. It would take a drastic shift in the race to erase Trump’s lead before the New York State Republican Primary on April 19th.
Trump also ranks as the most popular candidate for President among New York Republican voters. Trump is viewed favorably by 68% of GOP primary voters, while unfavorably by 31%. Ted Cruz is the least popular candidate remaining in the race with 47% of GOP primary voters viewing him favorably and 50% unfavorably. If Mitt Romney was hoping to become a candidate at the convention, he should avoid New York GOP primary voters as he is viewed unfavorably by 68% of them.
When asked who will be the nominee of the Republican Party, a full 71% of New York Republicans believe Donald Trump will win the nomination, while 15% believe it will be Cruz, 7% think Kasich will prevail and 8% think another candidate will be nominated at the convention in Cleveland. A wide majority of these voters (63%) also feel that Trump should be given the nomination if he has the most pledged delegates when the convention begins, even if he does not have the requisite majority of 1,237.
Asking New York GOP Primary voters if there was a candidate that they could not vote for in November led to very mixed results. While 44% said they would vote for any Republican nominee, 23% said they would not vote for Cruz, 21% said they would not vote for Trump and 12% could not vote for Kasich.
In sum, Donald Trump is in the driver’s seat and is poised to win a majority of votes and delegates in the New York Republican Presidential Primary.
The sample size for the survey is 1,795 likely Republican primary voters in New York State and the margin of error is +/-3.0%. Responses were gathered through landline interviews conducted using IVR Automated Phone Calls. The survey was conducted by Liberty Opinion Research LLC between March 24-26, 2016.